should employ an offshore approach that relies on allies and local governments to counter these groups while avoiding the deployment of U.S. They include the East Turkestan Islamic Movement in China and numerous others with parochial interests across Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The third category includes terrorist groups with little current interest and ability to strike the U.S. should support local governments but refrain from direct operations. Others, such as Boko Haram, are attracting more attention because of the growing pace of their attacks and plots against Americans overseas. Some of them, such as al-Shabaab in Somalia, have been on the radar screen of U.S. ![]() and other Western targets overseas, though not necessarily in the U.S. should also help train, advise and assist local governments in their struggle against terrorism and to deal with its root causes, which may vary from incompetent security forces to collapsing economies.Ī second category of terrorist groups-particularly in Somalia, Iraq, Libya and Nigeria-is bent on hitting U.S. The strategy should involve clandestine special operations, intelligence, diplomatic and other capabilities to target al Qaeda groups and their financial, logistical and political support networks. should engage long-term in Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan and possibly Syria. Given the high-level threat posed by these groups, and the limited capacity of local governments, the U.S. He is flanked by a number of Americans, such as Abdullah al-Shami and Adam Gadahn, who support that goal. But its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, remains committed to striking the U.S. Some analysts and policy makers have played down the threat from al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which has been weakened because of persistent U.S. The growing number of radicalized Americans fighting against the Assad regime has also raised the threat from Syria. There are also individuals like the Tsarnaev brothers, the Boston Marathon bombers, who read al Qaeda propaganda and used sources, such as al Qaeda's Inspire magazine, to build their bombs. They are a top priority, and include al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula based in Yemen, and the core al Qaeda along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Some of these groups have an interest and ability to strike the U.S. A handful of terrorist groups, however, remain dedicated to attacking the U.S. Still, these nations are not to our knowledge actively plotting attacks against the American homeland. North Korea, which already has nuclear weapons, is highly unstable. Iran remains dedicated to developing a nuclear-weapons capability. China is flexing its military, economic and cyber muscles in East Asia. Russia has invaded Ukraine and threatens America's NATO allies. faces complex, significant threats beyond jihadi terrorism. Moner Mohammad Abusalha, an American who was a member of the al Qaeda affiliate organization al-Nusra, blew himself up in Syria on March 29. The most significant terrorism threat to the United States comes from groups operating in Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria. ![]() strategy should be revamped, prioritizing American interests and developing a more effective, light-footprint campaign.Īccording to new data in a RAND report I have written, from 2010 to 2013 the number of jihadist groups world-wide has grown by 58%, to 49 from 31 the number of jihadist fighters has doubled to a high estimate of 100,000 and the number of attacks by al Qaeda affiliates has increased to roughly 1,000 from 392. disengagement-or even risking the return of terrorists to the field by freeing them from detention-is not the answer to the threat they pose. ![]() The number of al Qaeda and other jihadist groups and fighters are growing, not shrinking. So could the release of five high-level prisoners from Guantanamo Bay in a swap with the Taliban to win the freedom of Sgt. President Obama's decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by 2016 is a risky step and may embolden Islamic extremists.
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